← Card Merchant Auckland Regionals
Water AlliesTier 1
at Card Merchant Auckland Regionals
decks
3
(5.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
12-7-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
54.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1444
· median 1513
· range 1250–1570
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1189
Q3 1396
1599
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.8% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.8% | -3.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.3% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 66.4% | +9.5 |
| Wind Allies | 7.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.4% | -8.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Slimes | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.1% | -22.3 |
| Fire Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
